A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
